"Validating" a business idea is like trying to validate a poker hand. It just doesn't make any sense.— Daniel Vassallo (@dvassallo) December 14, 2021
The concept of “validating a business idea” creates a false sense of security.
The example by Daniel Vassallo shows this in several dimensions.
In a game of poker, you can only make calculated guesses, based on probability, experience, and the attempt of analyzing your opponent.
There are moments where your chances of success are very high, but you still lose the game due to an unlikely card being played.
On the other hand, creating strategies to increase your odds of success will help you in winning.
Therefore a Startup Idea should be treated in the same way.
Strategies combined with a series of calculated guesses to increase your odds of success.
When it comes to business there are also so many aspects that are out of your control, like market cycles, consumer interests, hypes, trends, etc.
By being systematic about your business approach you can create and validate a hypothesis that moves you towards your business goal.
But validating one aspect, e.g. a target audience for your idea does not mean that you will have success with the overall business.
I think business success is a combination of preparation, work, adjusting, learning, experimenting, and … luck.
It’s all about increasing your odds of having luck.
So you can win no matter which cards you have been given.